AOG Risk
Prediction
Identify operational risks caused due to component failure and subsequent grounding of aircraft.
The AOG Risk Monitor module in AVILYTICS provides aircraft operators with critical insights into the risk of aircraft being grounded due to component failures By leveraging advanced data analytics and statistical modeling, this module helps operators proactively manage and mitigate AOG risks, ensuring higher fleet availability and operational efficiency.
Function Highlight
AOG Risk Dashboard
Tracks the AOG risk probabilities for each aircraft in the fleet, helping to identify high-risk aircraft and take preventive actions. It serves as a crucial tool for the Maintenance Control Center, enabling quick assessment and decision-making.
Failure Probability Modeling
AVILYTICS Provides detailed insights into the failure probabilities of individual components, allowing for targeted maintenance and replacement strategies using a sophisticated algorithm that analyzes historical and real-time data. This automation ensures that the risk assessments are always up to date and reflective of the current state of each aircraft.
Optimal Replacement Planning
AVILYTICS calculates the optimal replacement age for components, balancing the costs of scheduled and unscheduled removals to optimize maintenance budgets.
Proactive Notifications
Push notifications alert maintenance teams about high-risk components, facilitating swift action to prevent potential AOG situations. This proactive approach significantly reduces downtime and improves fleet availability.
how does it work?
Data Collection & Integration
AVILYTICS integrates seamlessly with various data sources within an airline’s operations, including M&E/MRO systems, flight operations data, and other relevant databases. This comprehensive data collection is essential for accurate AOG risk analysis.
Data Processing
Collected data is processed and normalized within the AVILYTICS data warehouse. This step ensures consistency and accuracy, making the data ready for advanced analysis.
Statistical Modeling and Risk Calculation
Failure Probability Metrics
AVILYTICS utilizes statistical metrics such as hazard functions, survival functions, and failure functions to calculate the risk of component failures. These metrics are based on historical data, FDR data, and advanced statistical models.
Optimal Replacement Age Calculation
Calculates the optimal replacement age for components by analyzing the cost-benefit ratio of scheduled vs. unscheduled removals. This helps in planning maintenance activities to prevent AOG events.
AOG Risk Dashboard Configuration
Fleet-Wide Overview
Displays the current probability of AOG events for each aircraft in the fleet. Users can see which aircraft have the highest risk and take proactive measures.
Component Risk Analysis
Identifies components with the highest failure probabilities, providing insights into which parts need closer monitoring or preemptive replacement.
Detailed Aircraft Risk Board
Provides a detailed view of each aircraft, including the failure probabilities of installed components and an ATA heatmap of the aircraft. This helps in understanding the specific risks associated with each aircraft.
Automated Reporting and Alerts
Schedule automated AOG risk report generation and distribution for timely access to critical data. Set up Pulse notifications for risk metrics, such as components nearing replacement age or showing increased failure risk.
Ole Holmsten, Head of Engineering at Norse
“We Are Excited To Work With EXSYN And Their AVILYTICS Software. We Have Just Started The Project, And What We Have Seen Already Is Impressive.”
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